Heinous Whiffs, Huge Dingers, Throwing Leather. Or How I Learned to Relax and Love Pedro.

(photo:  Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America)

He whiffs too much.

He's undisciplined at the plate.

His batting average is too low.

He can't lay off the high heat.

He can't hit a curveball.

He looks bad striking out.

Am I missing any of the routine criticisms of Pirates 3rd baseman, Pedro Alvarez? I'm sure I'm missing some; the Pedro hate seems to be endless. If you're a Pedro hater, I was once like you, more a basher than a hater really, but I was highly skeptical of his ability to ever turn into a proper MLB player. I didn't think he had good pitch recognition and I honestly didn't know if that could be fixed, or even improved, to say nothing of his defensive short-comings. But I've come to a place of peace and tranquility vis-a-vis young Pedro.

You can, too.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the fact that Pedro Alvarez is a streaky hitter.

That is the largest part of the serenity plan, simply accepting that Alvarez is streaky and, here's where it get's tricky, trusting that the dips and valleys are finite and generally followed by hot streaks. You have to believe deep in your soul that no matter how bad he looks whiffing one week, you'll be fist bumping two weeks later watching one majestic homer after another. Putting your faith in this, I will admit, is no small task. It can be done. He may not hit taters and drill doubles into the gap on your timetable, but he most assuredly will do so. Just try to muddle through the lulls and enjoy the highs.

(photo:  Vincent Pugliese/Getty Images North America)

He also, will most assuredly strike out and sometimes look really bad in so doing. Pedro has struck out 84 times in 224 plate appearances this year, which means, if you turn on a Buccos game, you are likely to see Petey whiff. Not to mention that the ratio of SO to ABs is up from last year. [This year, it's one SO per every 2.67 AB; in 2012 it was one SO per every 2.91 AB.]

But Pedro is not alone. Increasing strike out rates are blowing through MLB like swine flu, er, H1N1. Here's ESPN's baseball guru, Tim Kurkjian on the rise in strike outs, league-wide:

The start of this striKeout craze came in 1986-87 when Rob Deer, Pete Incaviglia, Cory Snyder, Bo Jackson and Jim Presley started playing every day. Each strucK out 150 times a year but hit 20 to 30 homers; and as quickly as a Bryce Harper home run leaves the ballpark, it was OK to K. Since then, the striKeout rate has steadily climbed to where it is now: a pace that will make 2013 the biggest striKeout season ever. Through May, the nine biggest striKeout months in history had been the past nine months. In April, there were 15.29 striKeouts per game, five more per game than the average in the 1980s. May (14.98 per game) and the first half of June (15.01) were hardly better. It's an epidemic that, at this pace, has no cure.

Beyond which, the Pirates as a club are strike out machines, ranking behind only the Astros, Braves and Red Sox in sheer numbers.

You can talk to me about the good old days all you want, remind me that the great Ted Williams hit 37 four-baggers in the same season that he hit .403, and that he never struck out more than 64 times in a season. Think about that -- one of the great power hitters of all time struck out on average 50 times  season. Fifty!  Pedro is a good player, but he's no Ted Williams. There has never been another like him and I doubt there ever will be. In this day and age, power hitters strike out. A ton.

Would I like to see Pedro strike out less? Yes. At the very least, I'd like that strike out ratio to climb back to a more respectable 1:3. In the meantime, I'm watching his OPS climb to where it needs to be (by my estimate around .900 and I think it will get there.) There's been a steady increase through the season -- OPS in April? .560. OPS in May? .794. OPS in June (so far)? .979.

(photo:  Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)

Leaving behind all the sabermetrics for a moment, let's acknowledge that even if you didn't have any numbers in front of you, didn't have access to them, and, in fact, were not even permitted to crunch numbers, you'd have to acknowledge that Pedro is a different hitter in 2013 than he was in 2012 and in 2011. Not hugely different. Not like the difference between, say, 'Breaking Bad,' and 'True Blood'; more like the difference between season one of 'Justifed', which was smart, funny entertainment, and season two, which was smart, funny and entertaining, but which also had more richness and nuance than the first season. [When grappling with tough baseball analogies, always go cable network drama, I say.]

He has become an asset in the field, making some nice picks along the line and using that howitzer of an arm to wing on-target throws to 1st base. This is no small thing. With the starting rotation held together with Clint Hurdle's left over chewing gum, cotton candy and free t-shirts (currently, AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriquez and Jeanmar Gomez are all on the DL), they need all the help they can get manufacturing outs in the field.

Yesterday, the Pirates needed to find a way to split a four-game series with the Reds. If there can be such a thing as a 'must win' game around the solstice, to my mind, this was it. Because of their baggage, 20 years of losing ways, a solid 18 years of being the doormats of the NL, some games are important on a psychic level. The Reds love pushing around the Pirates. They like beating them and they love to intimidate them. Which is why I think it was important for the Bucs to get a split in that little bandbox they call Great American. And nobody came up bigger than Pedro Alvarez.

In a few weeks, he'll hit a mini-slump, Hurdle will have to drop him back down to 6th in the batting order, and everybody will lose their minds. But a few days or weeks after that, he'll snap out of it, start crushing balls, and turning in multiple RBI games. Of that, I have faith.

Gerrit Cole's Debut, New Security and Lively Bats at PNC Park

(photo:  Pittsburgh Pirates)

Renee Zellwegger once said, in her most annoying, treacly voice, "You had me at Hello." (Excuse me while I retch for a moment. Okay, I'm back.) 

By the time Gerrit Cole tossed his first pitch in the major leagues -- a 96 mph heater to San Fran left fielder Gregor Blanco --  he already had Pirates fans in the palm of his hand. (Or at least those who were in the ballpark for the momentous occasion of the debut of the club's most prized prospect. Super timing on busting out the new security  measures, guys. Really, top notch. I know that I live in fear of terror loving terrorists from Cincinnati blowing up Pops Plaza.)

Cole wasn't dominant through his first two innings, but he was good. Really good. PNC Park was buzzing and it was all due to this kid. 

By the time he came to bat in the bottom of the 2nd, nearly all of the 30,614 who came to see him were finally in the park, just in time for him to rip a one-out line drive single to right center, driving home two-runs. By that point, the Gerrit Cole fever reached a level that can only be described as full on delirium of a religious nature. With Cole on first base, and Russell Martin and Pedro Alvarez across home plate, Pirates fans would have followed the 2011 overall No. 1 draft pick blindly to the ends of the earth like thousands of Unsullied following Daenerys Targaryen. 

To be sure, Cole pitched well. He hit a dragon-fire like 99 on the radar gun a handful of times and I didn't see his fastball dip below 95 mph. Though batters were making contact -- Cole only had two strike outs on the night -- the contact wasn't usually of a very convincing nature. A dying quail here, a gork there, a ground ball with eyes elsewhere. Frankly, I thought it was a good sign. Rookie pitchers, particularly those with the pedigree and baggage of being the overall top pick, usually want to 'announce their presence with authority' in the words of the great Nuke Laloosh. But Cole didn't appear to be afraid of the contact, which to me is a sign of remarkable maturity. It is a mindset that could serve him well in his MLB career. The other great sign was that he didn't walk a single batter. 

Through his 6 1/3 innings, Cole was awfully promising. Tantalizing, even. I'm excited to see his next start, but I'm not ready to start scheduling parades around here just yet -- Gerrit Cole is young and incomplete. And we've all seen guys like this flame out for any number of reasons. The job in front of the Pirates now is to keep him on track, on a trajectory for growth, without putting too much pressure on him. Amazingly enough, with Ray Searage coaching the hurlers, I actually trust him to shepherd this young guy safely through. Now, what are we going to do with 30,000 Unsullied?

What Went Wrong, Went Wrong Fast: a Eulogy for the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates

"What went wrong, went wrong fast," John Irving once wrote and with those words, his protagonist in The Hotel New Hampshire revealed the death of his mother and younger brother in a plane crash. As a reader, you know it's going to happen; maybe not a plane crash, but you know that something horrible, something awful, something unspeakable will happen. You know this because Irving is a master of foreshadowing. (Also of pathos, which is probably relevant when discussing the Pirates, too.) Because Irving is just so damned good at it, you know what's coming, but you don't know it, which is to say that you feel something -- your Spidey sense is all tingly and at the same time, the novel is new to you. When it happens, the impact is like a sledgehammer hitting you in the face and yet, a tiny voice in the back of your brain says, "Oh, I knew that was going to happen."

The calamity which is the back end of the 2012 baseball season for the Pittsburgh Pirates season reminds me so much of Irving's crash:  the late season death keel is something we could have predicted -- well, maybe not to the extreme that has played out on the field -- but still we could have seen it coming, or at least parts of it.

The Burnett Effect

Back here at Bucco Central ... At the start of this baseball season, I was adamant that a winning season -- not a 81-81 finish -- but an actual winning season would constitute success for your Pittsburgh Pirates. Anything less than 82 wins would be a failure.

The Pirates have, so far, exceeded expectations and, in fact, for the Pirates to finish 82-80, they would have to finish the last 59 games of the season at 23-36. So that would actually suck, right?

But the Pirates are not going to go into a 23-36 slump. They are going to remain relevant. They will not go into that good night because Allan James Burnett will not permit it.

Last night, with the Pirates reeling and keeling after two bad losses to two really bad teams, Burnett did exactly what he said he would do -- stop the bleeding. Early in the day, I was running some errands and I was thinking about the Pirates and Burnett, which made me think, "Okay, AJ, you asked for it. Can you do it?"

Pirates GM Neal Huntington -- #winning

Meanwhile, back at Bucco Central ...

Facebook was not even a glimmer in the eye of Mark Zuckerberg the last time the Pirates won and blogs like this one were unheard of, all of which is to say that my Pirates, if you didn't know, have been terrible for a very long time. And yet, the team seems to be rounding a corner around due in large part to three people:  Andrew McCutchen, Clint Hurdle and Neal Huntington. Whether or not you are on the Bucco Bandwagon or remain skeptical of the team's heretofore success, today seems like a good day to take a stroll through the biggest moves that Neal Huntington has made and evaluate them -- WIN, LOSE or PUSH.

Down the Home Stretch, What to Make of the Pittsburgh Pirates?

It's been a while since I've checked in here at Bucco Central, too long actually, but I've been meaning to catch up with the Pirates for some time. What have I missed?

Well, oh, let's see, there was, oh yeah, there was a 10 game losing streak that put a stake right into the heart of an otherwise freakishly fun season. That put them in such a quagmire, they couldn't dig themselves out.

What did it? What was the beginning of the end for an otherwise magical summer? Well, most everybody keeps pointing to the crushing 19 inning loss at Atlanta, which, no doubt was one of the worst, most painful losses a team can suffer, but I don't think their problems started because they ended up on the wrong side of an atrociously heinous call.

Rather, I think that 19 inning marathon took a lot out of them, regardless of the outcome. Worse, it came just five games into a 20 game stretch without a day off. They played too many innings, with too much travel, against really good teams, with no time to rest regular players (which Clint Hurdle really makes a point of doing), and worse, no time to rest any of the pitchers, either the bullpen guys or the starters. Frankly, I was shocked that Hurdle didn't go to a six man pitching rotation to get them through that stretch, but he probably didn't want to lose a position player to bring Brad Lincoln into the starting rotation.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Say: Who You Callin' Cheap, Bub?

Back here in the Burgh at Bucco Central:

Late on Monday night, the Pirates signed their top two draft picks -- Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell, spending $17 million dollars in bonuses to do so. These bonuses put the Pirates in front of every other team in terms of spending on the draft and, in the Neal Huntington era, they have spent about $47 million on the draft, the most of any club in MLB.

Not to cheerlead for the Pirates, but can we stop saying that they're too cheap? Or not trying anymore? Just because they may fail, just because this particular team hit a losing streak of bibilical proportions (I was expecting a plague of locusts to descend upon the clubhouse any second), just because Pedro Alvarez is positively painful to watch at the plate, doesn't mean they aren't actually trying to win.

Derrek Lee a Bucco and Other Random Trade Deadline Thoughts

Back here at Bucco Central ...

Late last night, your Pittsburgh Pirates completed a trade for Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles. Per the Post-Gazette, the Pirates had to give up single A prospect Aaron Baker in the trade -- no big whup. Also, the Pirates will be responsible for $2.6 of the money owed to the power-hitting 1st baseman this year. Again, no big whup.

I think this is going to be a great deal for the Pirates.

Andrew McCutchen, Joel Hanrahan and the Great All-Star Snub of 2011

Random thoughts from Bucco Central.

Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan is headed to the All-Star game, a well deserved honor. Center-fielder Andrew McCutchen should be going with him, but the All-Star game is an honor conferred largely based on reputation and McCutchen is still building his. [Although a quick stroll through the stats would reveal these facts:  McCutchen is 3rd among all National League center-fielders in OPS (.892), 3rd in Slugging (498), 2nd in RBI (after today's win over the Astros he has 46), and 3rd in stolen bases (15.) It doesn't take a nuclear physicist to figure it out.] However, there's a bright side for Pittsburghers, which is, in the two games since his All-Star snub, he's gone 4-for-9 at the plate, with a two-bagger and three RBI's. Let's hope he stays motivated by The Great All-Star Snub of 2011. (tm)

Here's What .500 Looks Like, the June Edition

I don't think we're going to see that same, ugly implosion we saw last June. No sireee.

Is everybody else having fun with this? Because I sure as hell am.

Are the Pirates Getting Better? And by Better, I Mean Tolerably Mediocre?

From True/Slant on July 22, 2010:


Okay Pittsburgh Pirates, You Got My Attention

Okay, Pirates, I am engaged. I am rapt. Plugged in. Enthralled. Well, maybe not enthralled, but you do have my attention so: now what?

Since the All Star Break, the heretofore pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates have played six games, winning four of them. It’s a nice number of wins versus losses, but it’s no great shakes. It’s how they’ve won that grabbed me by the throat, slapped me around and said, “Hey, dummy, wake up!”

In those games, the Pittsburgh line up, the same one which posted a winning percentage of .341 at the break and which had scored just 284 runs in those 88 games, have scored 50 runs in the past six games. They scored 86 runs in the entire month of May and just 80 in all of June. They were drubbed by the score of 20-0 in April. Ouch.

And yet, in less than one week, 50 Pirates crossed home plate, a pace which they cannot keep up over a long stretch, of course, but considering how moribund they’ve been at the plate, this is like watching the Bizarro Buccos.

Of course, management kept promising things would get better. Just wait, they said. The young guys are good, they claimed. Seriously. We know you’ve been hosed in the past, but we mean it this time. Really. They’re coming. And they’re gonna be good. Don’t tune out yet. Please.

I had heard that song and dance before. Andrew McCutchen is the real deal, but one guy does not a major league franchise make.

But the cavalry is here. Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez. And they are really good.

Which leads me to believe that either:

(one) these guys are as promised.

Or,

(two) this is a blip. Or a bloop. Or a bleep. No. Scratch that. The last 17 years have been a bleep. So a blip or a bloop. Basically, this could be a fluke is what I’m getting at, because it’s hard to believe that this isn’t just a case of a blind pig finding an acorn, which I am told, happens from time to time.

It’s not like the management team are the most credible guys around. After all, they brought on Aki “Knee Brace” Iwamura to play 2nd base, paid him $4,850,000.00, and in return got a guy who had 30 hits in 54 games. (If you watched closely enough, you could almost see the bat move off his shoulder, so infrequent and glacial was it’s movement.)

This is the franchise that has strung together more consecutive losing seasons than any team in the history of professional baseball. And that’s saying something cousin.

You’ll pardon me if I haven’t drunk the Bucco Kool-Aid just yet.

But at the risk of being a Gulla Bull, it feels different this time. Which has to mean something, even if all the runs and these few wins don’t mean anything practical for this year. 2010 is a wash and will be another (record setting) losing season.

The way this team is playing now, this could be a portent of actual good things to come. Can they finish strong in August and September? And if they do, can they translate that into success in 2011? If they keep these guys together, and if they can get a few key elements (wily, veteran catcher anyone?), they could be a team with playoff hopes still alive in August of 2011.

What looms larger than Pedro Alvarez’ OBP is the trade deadline (July 31st). Is the Pirates front office dealing in good faith this year or will they be up to their usual tricks of sending young talent away, only to receive a bag of batting practice balls and some summer sausages in return.

So I’ve poured myself a Dixie Cup of that Bucco Kool-Aid, but I’ll wait to drink it until the returns are in from any trade deadline moves.