Down the Home Stretch, What to Make of the Pittsburgh Pirates?

It's been a while since I've checked in here at Bucco Central, too long actually, but I've been meaning to catch up with the Pirates for some time. What have I missed?

Well, oh, let's see, there was, oh yeah, there was a 10 game losing streak that put a stake right into the heart of an otherwise freakishly fun season. That put them in such a quagmire, they couldn't dig themselves out.

What did it? What was the beginning of the end for an otherwise magical summer? Well, most everybody keeps pointing to the crushing 19 inning loss at Atlanta, which, no doubt was one of the worst, most painful losses a team can suffer, but I don't think their problems started because they ended up on the wrong side of an atrociously heinous call.

Rather, I think that 19 inning marathon took a lot out of them, regardless of the outcome. Worse, it came just five games into a 20 game stretch without a day off. They played too many innings, with too much travel, against really good teams, with no time to rest regular players (which Clint Hurdle really makes a point of doing), and worse, no time to rest any of the pitchers, either the bullpen guys or the starters. Frankly, I was shocked that Hurdle didn't go to a six man pitching rotation to get them through that stretch, but he probably didn't want to lose a position player to bring Brad Lincoln into the starting rotation.

Derrek Lee a Bucco and Other Random Trade Deadline Thoughts

Back here at Bucco Central ...

Late last night, your Pittsburgh Pirates completed a trade for Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles. Per the Post-Gazette, the Pirates had to give up single A prospect Aaron Baker in the trade -- no big whup. Also, the Pirates will be responsible for $2.6 of the money owed to the power-hitting 1st baseman this year. Again, no big whup.

I think this is going to be a great deal for the Pirates.

Is Third Base Cursed Land for the Pittsburgh Pirates? And Man-Games Lost.

Meanwhile, back at Bucco Central ...

Pirates 3rd baseman Pedro Alvarez continues to toil away in AAA ball, having come off the disabled list a few days before the All-Star break. It is important to remember who Alvarez is -- the guy who was supposed to be the power bopper the Pirates have long needed, the guy drafted to be the savior of the franchise. I screamed, you screamed, we all screamed for Pedro.

The numbers:  Before going on the DL, Pedro had been to the plate 125 times. He had two dingers and 42 strike outs. And yes, for all of you Douglas Adams fans, that's forty-two strikeouts. So yeah, he was whiffing about a third of the time at the plate. The strike-out rate is no better in his brief stint in Indianapolis where, in the course of 10 games, he's been to the plate 34 times and struck out 13 times, with zero home runs.

The Pittsburgh Pirates: Playing Baseball Like They Care

But still -- it's not enough.

It would be nice to believe that grit and effort will get you through to the promised land with a bunch of has-beens, never-weres, and never-shoulda-beens because they just want it more than the other guys. What a wonderful world it would be if you could simply 'Braveheart' your way into the MLB playoffs.It would be grand if it were actually possible to just "win the whole fucking thing," as Tom Berenger says in 'Major League,' out of spite and sheer bull-headedness. But those are movies and it's a fantasy to believe that you can win a World Series (or even your division), just because you want it more. Sure, you need desire, will and resilience. You need guys who believe and who put in the effort necessary to win.

But you also need starting pitching, relief pitching and a shut-down closer. You need speed on the basepaths and power in the batters box. You need a bunch of guys who can actually, you know, hit a curveball.

And you need a skipper to pull it all together.

The Pirates have the last element, I believe. I believe Hurdle is a good manager. I believe he might even be a great one. At the very least, he's interesting, awake, seems to give a shit, is willing to take some chances and, also, is a guy who stressed fundamentals in spring training. These are all good things. Hurdle is a monumental improvement over John Russell. Hurdle is both engaged and engaging; Russell was comatose. On his best days.

But, really, without a significant improvement in on-field talent, how many wins can a manager account for? I'm saying seven, maybe 10 at the outside. If you put Hurdle in the Pirates dugout last year, that roster might could have won 64 games (maybe 67) rather than 57. They were a bad team. That fact was exacerbated by the presence of a bad manager.

But, aside from the coaching improvement how much different, how much better are these guys? Let's look at the bats first, then the arms.

This is last season's opening day line up: 1. Aki Iwamura (2B), 2. Andrew McCutchen (CF), 3. Garrett Jones (RF), 4. Ryan Doumit (C), 5. Lastings Milledge (LF), 6. Jeff Clement (1B), 7. Andy LaRoche (3B), 8. Pitcher (in this case, Zach Duke and yes, Russell had so little confidence in his short-stop that he had him batting 9th), 9. Ronnie Cedeno (SS).

Of course, even the inert Russell had the sense to sit Iwamura (and his knee-brace, and his .182 batting average. Face of futility = Iwamura) after a while and bring up guys like Alvarez and Tabata. But even with those mid-season moves, the Pirates ranked 29th in runs, 29th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging percentage.

This year's batting order is much improved if for no other reason than the absence of Iwamura. The 2011 opening day batting order looked like this: 1. Jose Tabata (LF), 2. Neil Walker (2B), 3. McCutchen (CF), 4. Lyle Overbay (1B), 5. Pedro Alvarez, 6. Doumit (C), 7. Jones (RF), 8. Cedeno (SS), 9. Pitcher (in this case, Kevin Correia).

This year's line up should rank much higher in all categories. But even though they are better, are they that much better? Today, they are 29th in run, 25th in batting average, 26th in slugging percentage, and 24th in on-base percentage (that increase might be due solely to the great play of Tabata in the lead-off spot.) Hurdle thought they'd be better than those stats. Heck, we all did. Not that we expected the 1933 Pittsburgh Crawfords mind you, but we did expect to see more lively bats and more runs. The bats may yet turn a corner, crack into the middle percentages for runs scored and on-base percentages. Let's hope so.

Even if the bats wake up, even if Alvarez can actually hit a breaking ball once in a lunar cycle, will it make that much of a difference in terms of record? Unless Clint Hurdle can go out and pitch, how many more wins can we expect him to generate?

Kevin Correia, with his career 4.52 era is expected to anchor the Bucco rotation. Well, he's an improvement over having Zach Duke as your staff 'ace,' and, except for his last outing against the Brewers, he's looked pretty good, which is to say, he'd be a great acquisition if he were your #3 or #4 pitcher. That would be fantastic. That he is the staff ace, tells you something about the rest of the rotation.

Paul Maholm. Well, enough said, enough seen, enough. Enough of Paul Maholm.

The best thing that may have happened to the Pirates is an injury to Ross Ohlendorf. Journos who were at spring training report that Karstens looked better than Ohlendorf anyway, so Ohlendorf v. Karstens in the line-up? What's the difference? It's just an arm to put out there every five days and probably not an arm that should be in an MLB uniform, other than as a long-reliever anyway.

The interesting guys are the four and five pitchers: Charlie Morton and James McDonald. Folks seem to be excited about the potential of both of these guys. And even though I haven't quite seen what those folks are seeing, I'm going to reserve judgment on both of Morton and McDonald until I see more from them.

So, to break down the starting pitching: we have two guys we know are pretty bad but show just enough that the team doesn't quite want to give up on them (Maholm and Ohlendorf); one guy we know is pretty good -- not great, but good (Correia); two guys who are question marks (McDonald and Morton); and one guy who is a long-reliever dressed up as a starter (Karstens).

I think Hurdle will get everything he can from these guys. I love the way his staff handles base-running. I love the aggressive attitude. But when you have to rely on guys like Maholm and Meek, Crotta and Karstens (I assume he'll pitch in Ohlendorf's absence?), the team would have to score upwards of eight runs every night.

On opening day, I predicted 64 wins, which would be a seven game improvement over last year's finish. Even though they've hit a pretty rough patch in the past week, I'm going to upgrade that to 66 wins, just based on my opinion of Hurdle and what I've seen from Tabata as a lead off man. Is that enough improvement for Pittsburgh fans? What kind of record would satisfy you?

Are the Pirates Getting Better? And by Better, I Mean Tolerably Mediocre?

From True/Slant on July 22, 2010:


Okay Pittsburgh Pirates, You Got My Attention

Okay, Pirates, I am engaged. I am rapt. Plugged in. Enthralled. Well, maybe not enthralled, but you do have my attention so: now what?

Since the All Star Break, the heretofore pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates have played six games, winning four of them. It’s a nice number of wins versus losses, but it’s no great shakes. It’s how they’ve won that grabbed me by the throat, slapped me around and said, “Hey, dummy, wake up!”

In those games, the Pittsburgh line up, the same one which posted a winning percentage of .341 at the break and which had scored just 284 runs in those 88 games, have scored 50 runs in the past six games. They scored 86 runs in the entire month of May and just 80 in all of June. They were drubbed by the score of 20-0 in April. Ouch.

And yet, in less than one week, 50 Pirates crossed home plate, a pace which they cannot keep up over a long stretch, of course, but considering how moribund they’ve been at the plate, this is like watching the Bizarro Buccos.

Of course, management kept promising things would get better. Just wait, they said. The young guys are good, they claimed. Seriously. We know you’ve been hosed in the past, but we mean it this time. Really. They’re coming. And they’re gonna be good. Don’t tune out yet. Please.

I had heard that song and dance before. Andrew McCutchen is the real deal, but one guy does not a major league franchise make.

But the cavalry is here. Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez. And they are really good.

Which leads me to believe that either:

(one) these guys are as promised.

Or,

(two) this is a blip. Or a bloop. Or a bleep. No. Scratch that. The last 17 years have been a bleep. So a blip or a bloop. Basically, this could be a fluke is what I’m getting at, because it’s hard to believe that this isn’t just a case of a blind pig finding an acorn, which I am told, happens from time to time.

It’s not like the management team are the most credible guys around. After all, they brought on Aki “Knee Brace” Iwamura to play 2nd base, paid him $4,850,000.00, and in return got a guy who had 30 hits in 54 games. (If you watched closely enough, you could almost see the bat move off his shoulder, so infrequent and glacial was it’s movement.)

This is the franchise that has strung together more consecutive losing seasons than any team in the history of professional baseball. And that’s saying something cousin.

You’ll pardon me if I haven’t drunk the Bucco Kool-Aid just yet.

But at the risk of being a Gulla Bull, it feels different this time. Which has to mean something, even if all the runs and these few wins don’t mean anything practical for this year. 2010 is a wash and will be another (record setting) losing season.

The way this team is playing now, this could be a portent of actual good things to come. Can they finish strong in August and September? And if they do, can they translate that into success in 2011? If they keep these guys together, and if they can get a few key elements (wily, veteran catcher anyone?), they could be a team with playoff hopes still alive in August of 2011.

What looms larger than Pedro Alvarez’ OBP is the trade deadline (July 31st). Is the Pirates front office dealing in good faith this year or will they be up to their usual tricks of sending young talent away, only to receive a bag of batting practice balls and some summer sausages in return.

So I’ve poured myself a Dixie Cup of that Bucco Kool-Aid, but I’ll wait to drink it until the returns are in from any trade deadline moves.