David and Goliath, Elsewhere Known as UConn and Louisville: Women's Final Tips Tonight

Uh Oh. Looks who is baaack:

photo:  espn.com

UConn, losers of the previous three matches with Skylar Diggins and Notre Dame, lit the Irish's offensive sets on fire and made s'mores. On the offensive end, freshman Breeana Stewart bombed them with shots from every spot on the court. Yup. UConn is back. And playing their best basketball of the year. The Huskies look positively UConnian.

photo:  Lee Michaelson

Their opponent tonight in the final is about as much fun as you can have, short of a can of silly string and finger paints. Shoni Schimmel does crazy things on the court. She drives into Brittney Griner. She gets in the face of Odessey Sims. She makes ridiculous no-look behind the back bounce passes to her sister. She drains tres. But mostly, I think, she inspires her team. Even so, I haven't seen Louisville do what UConn just did -- put together a complete 40 minute game.

And somehow, even when having lapses and lulls, the Cardinals have gone on this run, taking out Baylor, Tennessee and Cal. It is nothing short of miraculous. It's not always pretty but it is always, always fun. With Shoni Schimmel held in check offensively on Sunday night, the Cards played shut down defense in the second half, holding Cal to just 20 points in 20 minutes. That's just crazy. Then the rest of the Cards -- Antonita Slaughter, Shoni's sister Jude, and  the rest of the Cards stepped up, erased a 10 point deficit, then set to work to build their own lead. Every time I count them out, the rise to the occasion.

But as fun and magical and incredible as this run has been, they can't be UConn, can they? Can they?

Let's take a quick look through the numbers.

First, there's the history. UConn is, well, UConn, the most storied women's team the history of women's sports not named Tennessee. Coach Geno Auriemma is looking for his eighth national title (which would tie the great Pat Summitt.) But that's history, right? There's no Sue Bird on this UConn team, no Diana Taurasi, no Maya Moore.

Still, they're UConn. Their average scoring margin advantage this season? 33.2 points per game, best in the nation. (This includes beating up on very good teams in the regular season by wide margins -- Duke by 30 points, Texas A & M by 31 points, Stanford by 26 points, South Florida by 34, lest you think the stat is padded with a bunch of 'Little Sisters of the Poor and Meek' type teams.) In the tournament, their average margin of victory is 35 points.

On the other hand, Louisville's average is not quite in that rarified air, but it is a very respectable 14.8 point per game advantage. And the games in the tourney have been nail-biters, nearly all of them but the first round.

What about the players? UConn has a huge height advantage, with four players over 6' 2" tall -- Stephanie Dolson (6' 5"), Morgan Tuck (6' 2"), Breeana Stewart (6' 4") and the little used (due to injury) Kiah Stokes (6' 3").

The Cards counter with freshman Sarah Hammond (6' 2") and ... okay, Sarah Hammond. Okey-Doke. I guess this is a literal David v. Goliath situation then.

And then there's that UConn defense, capable of discombobulating even the best offenses. Consider what they did to Skylar Diggins, the best point guard I've ever seen in the womens' game, just this past Sunday night? Notre Dame's offense was hinky and out of joint. They were forcing bad shots and each player was trying to win the game on her own -- which is completely unlike them. Did Notre Dame just fall apart out of nowhere? Not bloody likely. No. UConn's defense did that to them.

It seems impossible an impossible task for Louisville to take down this team, doesn't it? But the Cards have two things going for them.

photo:  Gerald Herbert, AP

One is that the Schimmel sisters play fearlessly. They play 'Rez Ball' as it is affectionately known. Shoni is a firey player and Jude is much more cerebral, but their teammates feed off of both of them, I think. This team team ain't skeered. They ain't skeered of anybody. And as they play UConn every year in the Big East, they are less intimidated than other teams might be. (Not that that helped the Irish much on Sunday night.)

The other thing the Cards have going for them is that defense. Since taking over at Louisville in 2007, Jeff Walz has taken the Cards to two NCAA Championship games (this year and in 2008-2009, when the Cards lost to UConn.) If you're reading this post, chances are you know a good bit about UConn's Geno Auriemma, but you may not remember that Walz was an assistant coach for Brenda Frese at Maryland when the Terps won the championship in 2006 versus Duke. Walz has been so good at Louisville, such a defensive master, that I have started to believe that he was one of the biggest reasons for that national championship in Maryland. In the last week or so, he has created defenses to shut down Baylor and Tennessee and Cal. If anybody can think of a way to shut down Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and Breeana Stewart, this is the guy to do it.

Given all the above givens -- the history, the size advantage, the records -- by any measure this is UConn's game to lose. I don't think that Louisville has an answer to Stewart, who came to life in the Elite 8 and has been unconscious ever since. I haven't seen Louisville play a complete 40 minute game yet. Can they? Can they match UConn for 40 minutes? Can they find a way to curb Stewart and Mosqueda-Lewis and Dolson and Bria Hartley? It's a tall task. 

There is the very real possibility of a UConn blow out. 

But there is also the possibility of history being made. 

Is Louisville's Take Down of Baylor the Biggest Upset Ever in Women's Hoops?

Shoni Schimmel ain't skeered of Brittney Griner
photo:  Sue Ogrocki, AP

In 1985, John Thompson's Georgetown Hoyas were a sight to behold. They didn't just win. They weren't merely satisfied to beat teams -- they destroyed them. I mean this in the nicest possible way, but they were like the Roman Legion descending. Nobody would admit it, but other teams were scared. And even if those teams weren't scared, their fans were. They gave up all hope upon seeing the dreaded G'Town on the schedule. Your team was going to lose to the Hoyas. The question then became -- how bad of a loss did it have to be to cross over into embarrassment territory?

Top 5 Craziest Final Fours Ever

Last year, when Northern Iowa took out Kansas in the second round of the tourney, it forced me to revisit the top 10 upsets in NCAA tourney history. I'm not sure who I take off that list, but I have to include VCU's run very near the top, particularly as nobody was more beat upon than VCU heading into the tourney: they had to play a 'play in' game, they were likely the 68th and last team selected for the tournament and every talking head within ear-shot of a microphone cried foul, opining that VCU didn't deserve the last bid, they generally sucked and so on; then they went out and beat Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas.

If VCU is a complete fall over and get the smelling salts kind of shock, the return of last year's runner-up Butler is less of a shock. Still the Bulldogs were an 8 seed (which pretty much tells you where the selection committee thought they'd end up) and Butler is the only team from a mid-major to play into the Final Four in back to back years since the 1990 and 1991 UNLV teams (since the tourney expanded to 64, that is.) Pretty impressive on Butler's part, no?

If 2008 was the most predictable, chalk Final Four of all time, with four No. 1 seeds meeting (yawn, big, big yawn), 2011 is the antidote to the chalk. If you think this is the nuttiest Final Four ever, you would be right.

What Final Fours fill out the remaining Top 5 Most unlikely? To determine that, I've used the very scientific method of relying on my prodigious memory plus google, and starting with the Bird-Magic Final Four (1979).

1. 2011 -- UConn (3), Kentucky (4), Butler (8) and VCU (12*). There has never been a year like this, not even one that comes close. To have two mid-major teams in the Final Four is stunning. Most years, we don't even get one. But to have the Colonial Athletic Conference and and the Horizon League represented makes this THE most unlikely Final Four of All-Time. By a ton, in fact. VCU, a 12* seed (don't you think that a 12 seed that had to 'play in' deserves an asterisk?) and Butler, an 8 seed, have outlasted all four No. 1 seeds, all four No. 2 seeds and all but one of the No. 3 seeds. No way on God's green earth did anybody see that coming. You have to go the whole way back to 1980 to find a Final Four sans a single No. 1 seed (bear in mind, that was when the tourney field was only 48 teams.) Amazing. 31 straight years with at least one No. 1 seed in the Final Four.


2. 2006 -- LSU (4), UCLA (2) George Mason (11), and Florida (3). I still marvel at George Mason's run to the Final Four. There's always an upset in every tournament, but for GM to run through the field to the Final Four ... well, we hadn't seen anything like it in a long time. And I didn't expect that we'd see anything like it for many years to come. Plus, in 2006, we had no clue how good that Florida team was yet.


3. 1980 -- Iowa (5), Louisville (2), Purdue (6), and UCLA (8). Okay, this is a collection of household names (Iowa less so, unless you're counting football and wrestling), but notice the complete lack of No. 1 seeds. 1980 was the last time we had a Final Four notable for the absence of 1 seeds.

4. 1979 -- Indiana State (1), Depaul (2), Michigan State (2), Penn (9). From a field of 40. Yeah, yeah. Indiana State was a 1 seed, but really, this is way before expanded cable and light-years before the internet. Had anybody outside of Terre Haute seen Indiana State play prior to the tournament? Penn was in the Final Four? Penn? As in the University of Pennsylvania of the Ivy League. Yup. Bird. Magic. Everybody paid attention. Nobody saw this coming, but it fixated a nation. And we haven't stopped watching since.

5. 1985 -- Georgetown (1), St. John's (1), Villanova (8) and Memphis State (2). I went back and forth on this one (plus the two bonuses below.) Two No. 1 seeds? Power conference? But, what are the odds that one conference would send three teams to the Final Four? It hasn't been done since. Then there is the whole giant upset of Georgetown. In fact, I think that I penciled them into my bracket as the winner of the whole thing back on Valentine's Day, 1985, that's how good they were. So, for the unlikely upset, plus the Big Beast having three teams advance, I'm including this as No. 5 on the list.

Honorable Mention: 1983 -- Houston (1), Louisville (1), Georgia (4), N.C. State (6). (from a field of 52.) I'm including this because Houston Phi Slamma Jamma was, indeed, a power team, but not from a power conference. Then, you consider the amazing upset in the final by Jimmy V's N.C. State team, and I had to include 1983.

Honorable Mention. 1991 - UNC (1), Kansas (2), Duke (2), and UNLV (1). I thought I should mention this Final Four because this is ONLY other time (since the tourney expanded to 64 teams) that a team from a mid-major conference made it through to the Final Four two years in a row. I know that UNLV was a powerhouse and I know that a Final Four rounded out by UNC, Duke, an Kansas is hardly a line up of obscure underdogs, but Tarkanian's Runnin' Rebs deserve at least a cursory nod.

8 Easy Steps to Blow Up Your March Madness Brackets

If you want to win your pool, your best chance is to leave it to chance. Enlarge your bracket sheet, dip your cat's paws in paint and let him walk on it to make the picks. Or, have your addled great-uncle make your picks for you after you've plyed him with several whiskey sours at the VFW or American Legion.

But if you're like me, you revel in being out of the running before Vitale's dome turns that very unique, distinct shade of dark umber that he gets in the Sweet Sixteen. I like to make extra copies of my picks to throw at the television. It makes watching my picks go down one by one more fun. Here are some easy steps to royally screwing up your picks.

1. Pick your favorite team to advance to the final. This step is much less effective if you are a fan of Duke or Kansas, because you have somewhat decent odds with those teams. But, if like me, you root for a program that has never won a title, nay, even made it to the Final Four, be sure to pencil your team in to the National Championship game. Oh, and while we're here, if you are a fan of Duke or Kansas, from the bottom of my heart, kindly piss off.

2. Listen to the 'experts.' Were I a younger person, the kind who could stay up for many hours on end, I could have I been watching, listening to and reading bracket breakdowns, bracket busters and upset specials non-stop for the last 40-some odd hours. Too. Much. Information. And really, if you hear Doug Gottlieb say one thing, you'll hear Jay Bilas say another, then read Andy Katz saying something else, and have Dick Vitale shouting about something, baaabeeeeee! By then you're like a dog chasing his tail. Be sure to inundate yourself with information if you want your bracket sheet to be FUBAR.

3. Factor in Venue. Along those lines, everybody's looking for an edge and what better than pseudo-home court advantage? Oh, lookie! Gonzaga's playing St. John's IN DENVER. That will give them a huge advantage. Not.

4. Pick a huge underdog. For every George Mason and Butler, there are hundreds of other mid-major teams that fall in the early rounds. Everybody wants to be the smart guy who picks the big underdog winner -- the one jerk you knew who crowed about picking Vermont to win over Syracuse in the first round in 2005. (And yeah, I did know that guy and my phone blew up the second that clock hit 0:00.) But if you try it, more likely than not, woe be unto your bracket sheets. However, if you do make that pick, even though your brackets are otherwise as lovely as a rusted, mangled, twisted hunk of sheet metal, you get to crow about your prescience in picking the big upset that everybody's talking about. So you've got that going for you.

5. Pick just the favorites. The history of the tourney is rife with upsets and if you don't pick one or two, you will surely be screwed when some Goliath goes down. One year I tried to pick against all the lower seeds and just picked the favorites. I was bitter and spiteful, so I changed tacts. Still, I was out of the running before I even started to feel my first hangover of March Madness.

6. Pick all the 12 seeds over 5 seeds in the first round. Every year, there's a 12 over a 5, right? The trick is -- which one? Richmond over Vandy? Utah St. over Kansas St.? Memphis over Zona? TBA (seriously, I don't know who it is yet, so really how I am expected to make this kind of a pick?) over WVU? Screw it. Pick them all!

7. Pick Gonzaga to make a deep run. They seem to be poised, almost all the time. And every time I pick them to advance past the Sweet Sixteen I get hosed. So get hosed. Pick the Zags!

8. Make your picks based on deep-seated antipathy. No doubt I have screwed myself in the past by picking against the entire ACC, picking against a coach who I find irksome (hey, there, Mr. Pitino) or picking against a fanbase (yes, UNC, I am looking at you.) It doesn't work. If you want to give yourself a fighting chance, repeat Michael Corleone's mantra -- it's not personal, it's just business. However, if you want to flame out spectacularly, pick the teams you hate to go down in the first round. You may even get lucky. You never know when little Weber State is going to smite UNC.

Off to make one last go-around with my Bracket Sheet of Crap. Enjoy the tourney.